Alpha Trader — Performance Report

AlphaDesk

Alpha Trader Strategy

8-Year Performance Report

Oct 2017 – Jun 2026

Basis: headline is the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) — the bot sizes 1% of current equity live. Equity curve, heatmap & per-pair figures are shown on a fixed 1% risk scale (1R = 1%) for readability. Real maker/taker fees · no same-candle look-ahead · 4,889 trades · BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP · 8.8 years

Compound Annual (CAGR)

+100% / yr

compounded growth rate · 8.8-yr record

Total Return

+697%

cumulative at fixed 1% risk (1R = 1%)

Max Drawdown

-32.6%

worst historical · ~30% typical, 50% tail

Win Rate

45.2%

avg win 1.19R · avg loss -0.72R

Profit Factor

1.36

gross profit ÷ gross loss

Risk of Ruin

≈0%

1% fractional sizing cannot zero the account

Equity Curve & Drawdown

Annual Returns

Monthly Returns — all years (%)

Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year
2017										+10	-2	+9	+17
2018	+9	+5	+12	+7	+9	+17	+5	+2	+33	+11	+24	+11	+145
2019	-2	+16	-6	+31	+17	+11	+6	+14	-2	+13	+5	-5	+98
2020	+37	+9	+42	+27	+9	-3	+6	+6	-4	+7	+24	+11	+171
2021	+3	+2	+0	+24	+18	-2	-1	+16	+11	+3	+1	+0	+75
2022	+2	+7	+2	-9	+25	+3	-2	-9	-3	-14	+23	+5	+30
2023	+21	-10	-1	-12	-5	+3	+19	-5	-10	+25	+11	-1	+35
2024	+6	+3	+13	-5	-8	-17	+14	-3	+3	+1	+31	+4	+42
2025	+3	+8	+25	+8	+10	-7	+15	+11	+0	-6	+12	-24	+55
2026	+42	+2	-7	-7	-18	+17							+29

Performance by Pair daily + weekly combined

Pair	Trades	Win Rate	Expectancy	Profit Factor	Total Return
BTC	1,367	47.0%	+0.192R	1.49	+262%
ETH	1,353	46.7%	+0.197R	1.52	+266%
SOL	891	45.5%	+0.080R	1.21	+71%
XRP	1,278	41.4%	+0.077R	1.18	+98%

Monte Carlo Simulation 50,000 bootstrap paths

Median Max DD (typical)

-33%

95th-pct Max DD

-58%

P(drawdown > 50%)

11%

Risk of Ruin

≈0%

How to read drawdown: treat ~30% as a typical worst-case over a multi-year hold. A 40–50% drawdown is uncommon but real (~1 in 9 simulated paths touch 50%+) — plan for it. Anything deeper is a tail / black-swan event, not the base case. The account cannot be zeroed because every trade risks 1% of current equity.

Final return distribution (fixed 1% basis) — p5 +490% · median +696% · p95 +910%

Max-drawdown distribution (% of peak equity)

Methodology. Past performance of the Alpha Trader engine — both sleeves run together: a daily intraday volatility-breakout sleeve and a weekly swing sleeve — on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP over 8.8 years (4,889 combined trades). The headline return is compounded (CAGR) — live, each trade risks 1% of current equity. The equity curve, heatmap and per-pair tables are shown on a fixed 1% risk scale (1R = 1%) for readability, so those read as summed R. Costs use real Hyperliquid maker/taker fees calibrated to live fills (≈0.079R per trade) with the exchange's 10× notional cap. Trade exits are resolved on 5-minute candles with no same-candle look-ahead — a take-profit can never fill on the same candle as entry, the strictest (most conservative) assumption; stop-losses are always checked before take-profits. Win rate, profit factor and per-pair figures are net of fees. Monte Carlo bootstraps the realized monthly-return sequence over 50,000 paths; a 50%+ drawdown occurs in ~11% of paths and is disclosed as a real (if uncommon) outcome.

Disclaimer. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Figures are based on the strategy's historical signals at a fixed 1% risk per trade and may not reflect live execution slippage in all market conditions. This document is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.