Basis: headline is the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) — the bot sizes 1% of current equity live. Equity curve, heatmap & per-pair figures are shown on a fixed 1% risk scale (1R = 1%) for readability. Real maker/taker fees · no same-candle look-ahead · 3,378 trades · BTC, ETH, SOL · 8.7 years
Compound Annual (CAGR)
+78% / yr
compounded growth rate · 8-year record
Recent 3-Year
+56% / yr
annualized · last 36 months
Total Return
+563%
cumulative at fixed 1% risk (1R = 1%)
Max Drawdown
-25.0%
worst historical · ~23% typical, 50% tail
Win Rate
46.7%
avg win 1.17R · avg loss -0.71R
Profit Factor
1.44
gross profit ÷ gross loss
Risk of Ruin
≈0%
1% fractional sizing cannot zero the account
Monthly Returns — all years (%)
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Year |
|---|
| 2017 | | | | | | | | | | +5 | -2 | +5 | +8 |
| 2018 | +8 | +3 | +9 | +4 | +7 | +21 | +2 | -4 | +16 | +8 | +30 | +6 | +109 |
| 2019 | +1 | +13 | -1 | +14 | +12 | +9 | +0 | +2 | -1 | +10 | +1 | -3 | +59 |
| 2020 | +23 | +8 | +30 | +26 | +12 | -3 | +14 | +5 | -2 | +11 | +16 | +11 | +151 |
| 2021 | +4 | +9 | +5 | -2 | +19 | +0 | +3 | +3 | +7 | +8 | +0 | +2 | +59 |
| 2022 | +2 | +2 | -3 | -9 | +20 | +4 | +0 | -5 | -1 | -13 | +13 | +4 | +13 |
| 2023 | +14 | -2 | -2 | -5 | -4 | +12 | -6 | -2 | -5 | +28 | +7 | +11 | +46 |
| 2024 | +11 | +22 | -4 | -5 | +5 | -12 | +5 | +3 | +1 | +5 | +23 | +2 | +55 |
| 2025 | +3 | +4 | +16 | +7 | +12 | -5 | +6 | +0 | +0 | -11 | +10 | -13 | +30 |
| 2026 | +37 | +3 | -1 | -3 | -14 | +10 | | | | | | | +31 |
Performance by Pair daily + weekly combined
| Pair | Trades | Win Rate | Expectancy | Profit Factor | Total Return |
|---|
| BTC | 1,286 | 47.4% | +0.198R | 1.51 | +254% |
| ETH | 1,266 | 46.7% | +0.189R | 1.51 | +239% |
| SOL | 826 | 45.8% | +0.084R | 1.23 | +70% |
Monte Carlo Simulation 50,000 bootstrap paths
Median Max DD (typical)
-23%
How to read drawdown: treat ~23% as a typical worst-case over a multi-year hold. A 40% drawdown is uncommon but real (~4.6% of simulated paths touch 40%+) — plan for it. Anything deeper is a tail / black-swan event, not the base case. The account cannot be zeroed because every trade risks 1% of current equity.
Final return distribution (fixed 1% basis) — p5 +403% · median +561% · p95 +725%
Max-drawdown distribution (% of peak equity)