AlphaDesk
Alpha Trader Strategy
8-Year Performance Report
Oct 2017 – Jun 2026
Basis: headline is the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) — the bot sizes 1% of current equity live. Equity curve, heatmap & per-pair figures are shown on a fixed 1% risk scale (1R = 1%) for readability. Real maker/taker fees · no same-candle look-ahead · 3,378 trades · BTC, ETH, SOL · 8.7 years
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Compound Annual (CAGR)
+78% / yr
compounded growth rate · 8-year record
Recent 3-Year
+56% / yr
annualized · last 36 months
Total Return
+563%
cumulative at fixed 1% risk (1R = 1%)
Max Drawdown
-25.0%
worst historical · ~23% typical, 50% tail
Win Rate
46.7%
avg win 1.17R · avg loss -0.71R
Profit Factor
1.44
gross profit ÷ gross loss
Risk of Ruin
≈0%
1% fractional sizing cannot zero the account

Equity Curve & Drawdown

Annual Returns

Monthly Returns — all years (%)

YearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYear
2017+5-2+5+8
2018+8+3+9+4+7+21+2-4+16+8+30+6+109
2019+1+13-1+14+12+9+0+2-1+10+1-3+59
2020+23+8+30+26+12-3+14+5-2+11+16+11+151
2021+4+9+5-2+19+0+3+3+7+8+0+2+59
2022+2+2-3-9+20+4+0-5-1-13+13+4+13
2023+14-2-2-5-4+12-6-2-5+28+7+11+46
2024+11+22-4-5+5-12+5+3+1+5+23+2+55
2025+3+4+16+7+12-5+6+0+0-11+10-13+30
2026+37+3-1-3-14+10+31

Performance by Pair daily + weekly combined

PairTradesWin RateExpectancyProfit FactorTotal Return
BTC1,28647.4%+0.198R1.51+254%
ETH1,26646.7%+0.189R1.51+239%
SOL82645.8%+0.084R1.23+70%

Monte Carlo Simulation 50,000 bootstrap paths

Median Max DD (typical)
-23%
95th-pct Max DD
-39%
P(drawdown > 50%)
1%
Risk of Ruin
≈0%
How to read drawdown: treat ~23% as a typical worst-case over a multi-year hold. A 40% drawdown is uncommon but real (~4.6% of simulated paths touch 40%+) — plan for it. Anything deeper is a tail / black-swan event, not the base case. The account cannot be zeroed because every trade risks 1% of current equity.
Final return distribution (fixed 1% basis) — p5 +403% · median +561% · p95 +725%
Max-drawdown distribution (% of peak equity)
Methodology. Past performance of the Alpha Trader engine — both sleeves run together: a daily intraday volatility-breakout sleeve and a weekly swing sleeve — on BTC, ETH, SOL over 8.7 years (3,378 combined trades). The headline return is compounded (CAGR) — live, each trade risks 1% of current equity. The equity curve, heatmap and per-pair tables are shown on a fixed 1% risk scale (1R = 1%) for readability, so those read as summed R. Costs use real Hyperliquid maker/taker fees calibrated to live fills (≈0.079R per trade) with the exchange's 10× notional cap. Trade exits are resolved on 5-minute candles with no same-candle look-ahead — a take-profit can never fill on the same candle as entry, the strictest (most conservative) assumption; stop-losses are always checked before take-profits. Win rate, profit factor and per-pair figures are net of fees. Monte Carlo bootstraps the realized monthly-return sequence over 50,000 paths; a 50%+ drawdown occurs in ~1% of paths and is disclosed as a real (if uncommon) outcome.

Disclaimer. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Figures are based on the strategy's historical signals at a fixed 1% risk per trade and may not reflect live execution slippage in all market conditions. This document is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice.